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Posted at 01:49 pm by ariksilverman
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Dec 13, 2006
Guess Where Al Jazeera Wins

Guess Where Al Jazeera Wins

http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/0,,1971223,00.html

BBC World dropped by Israeli satellite TV



Tara Conlan
Wednesday December 13, 2006
MediaGuardian.co.uk


BBC World has been dropped by Israel's satellite provider Yes TV in favour of the newly launched al-Jazeera English.

It is the first major distribution blow the corporation's international news channel has suffered since al-Jazeera's English-language service began broadcasting last month.

Although BBC World will still be available in Israel via cable, it will lose around 50% of its audience in the country as a result of being dropped by Yes.

Al-Jazeera English signed the carriage deal with Yes last month, but the damaging consequences for BBC World have only just emerged.

One BBC executive said: "We are disappointed but hopefully they will come back to the negotiations."

The deal with Yes takes al-Jazeera English's global reach to around 80m households.

The market for rolling international news is become increasingly crowded, with new rivals to BBC World and CNN.

In addition to the launch of al-Jazeera English, France 24 began broadcasting last week.

The BBC has had a difficult time over its coverage of Israel, with regular accusations of bias coming from both the Israeli and Palestinian sides.

Earlier this year an independent panel was set up by the corporation's board of governors to review its coverage of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

 

Posted at 05:24 pm by ariksilverman
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Dec 12, 2006
Winning Friends, Iran Encircles Israel

Winning Friends, Iran Encircles Israel

The interesting part of this story is at the end, which is aid Iran is going to give to Palestine. This wouldn't be happening if Israel, the US, the EU, and others had accepted the the results of the very fair and democratic election in Palestine. Instead, the new axis of evil (US-EU-Israel) have attempted to starve the Palestinians into submission, a tactic which isn't working. (Since the Palestinians refuse to bow in the face of starvation, the evil axis has shifted to trying to bring about a civil war and violent overthrow of the Palestinian government -- so much for George Bush's "Arab democracy.")

QUOTE: According to Haniyeh, the Iranian donation will include a direct cash payment to Hamas of $100 million. The remainder will be divided as follows: paying the unpaid salaries of employees of three ministries - labor, welfare and culture - as well as stipends to Palestinian prisoners and their families for the next six months ($45 million); paying stipends of $100 a month to some 100,000 unemployed Palestinian civil servants for the next six months ($60 million); doing the same for some 3,000 Palestinian fisherman ($1.8 million); building a cultural center and "national" offices, apparently for the government's use ($15 million); rebuilding some 1,000 demolished houses, at a cost of about $10,000 per house ($20 million); purchasing 300 new cars for the Palestinian government ($3 million); and purchasing Palestinian olive oil at a special high price ($5 million). Iran also promised to build three new hospitals and 10 clinics in the territories over the next 10 years. Haniyeh said that the financial aid was personally approved by Iran's supreme spiritual leader, Ali Khamenei, with whom he met on Sunday.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/799737.html

Tue., December 12, 2006 Kislev 21, 5767 | | Israel Time: 20:17 (EST+6) Ha'aretz

Last update - 07:40 12/12/2006

Olmert sends emissaries on secret Ramallah visit to Abbas

By Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz Correspondent

Two emissaries of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert paid a secret visit to Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah on Sunday, Haaretz has learned.

During the meeting, Olmert also spoke with Abbas by telephone, and the PA chairman said that he wants Israel to release Marwan Barghouti from prison independent of any deal for the release of kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.

Barghouti, a senior official in Abbas' Fatah party, is currently serving five life sentences for his role in the murder of five Israelis during the intifada.

However, Olmert replied that he is not even willing to discuss this issue until after Shalit is returned to Israel.

Palestinian sources said that the meeting, which was attended by Olmert's bureau chief, Yoram Turbowicz, and his political advisor, Shalom Turjeman, was extremely positive.

"We received several very positive messages from Israel," said one.

This is the first time that Olmert's emissaries have been to Ramallah to meet with Abbas, so the very fact that they came was also perceived as an encouraging gesture, the sources said. Hitherto, Turbowicz and Turjeman have only met with lower-level PA officials.

At the meeting, Abbas and the Israeli officials also discussed U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's planned visit to the region next month and the possibility of an Olmert-Abbas meeting. That meeting has been delayed by the lack of progress on Shalit's release.

Meanwhile, Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh announced Monday that Iran had promised to give the PA's Hamas government $250 million in 2007.

Haniyeh, who was speaking at the conclusion of a visit to Tehran, termed the visit "historic and very successful."

"We achieved our goals on this visit," he said. "We found all the love it is possible to give to the Palestinian people."

According to Haniyeh, the Iranian donation will include a direct cash payment to Hamas of $100 million.

The remainder will be divided as follows: paying the unpaid salaries of employees of three ministries - labor, welfare and culture - as well as stipends to Palestinian prisoners and their families for the next six months ($45 million); paying stipends of $100 a month to some 100,000 unemployed Palestinian civil servants for the next six months ($60 million); doing the same for some 3,000 Palestinian fisherman ($1.8 million); building a cultural center and "national" offices, apparently for the government's use ($15 million); rebuilding some 1,000 demolished houses, at a cost of about $10,000 per house ($20 million); purchasing 300 new cars for the Palestinian government ($3 million); and purchasing Palestinian olive oil at a special high price ($5 million).

Iran also promised to build three new hospitals and 10 clinics in the territories over the next 10 years.

Haniyeh said that the financial aid was personally approved by Iran's supreme spiritual leader, Ali Khamenei, with whom he met on Sunday.

Following that meeting, Khamenei said: "The day will yet come when all of Palestine will be under Palestinian rule. Only struggle and resistance will restore all of Palestine, every centimeter of it, to its owners. The Palestinian government will receive full support from the Islamic Republic of Iran."

Posted at 02:00 pm by ariksilverman
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Dec 10, 2006
Iraq: Secret US Talks with Enemy Claimed

Iraq: Secret US Talks with Enemy Claimed

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-2496369,00.html

The Sunday Times  [London] December 10, 2006

Secret American talks with insurgents break down

Hala Jaber, Amman

SECRET talks in which senior American officials came face-to-face with some of their most bitter enemies in the Iraqi insurgency broke down after two months of meetings, rebel commanders have disclosed.

The meetings, hosted by Iyad Allawi, Iraq's former prime minister, brought insurgent commanders and Zalmay Khalilzad, the US ambassador to Iraq, together for the first time.

After months of delicate negotiations Allawi, a former Ba'athist and a secular Shi'ite, persuaded three rebel leaders to travel to his villa in Amman, the Jordanian capital, to see Khalilzad in January.

"The meetings came about after persistent requests from the Americans. It wasn't because they loved us but because they didn't have a choice," said a rebel leader who took part.

Last week the long-awaited report of the Iraq Study Group, co-chaired by James Baker, the former secretary of state, and Lee Hamilton, a former congressman, called for America to seek to engage with all parties in Iraq, with the exception of Al-Qaeda.

However, the insurgents' account of the hushed-up meetings reveals that concerted attempts to engage them in negotiations had already failed earlier this year.

Hopes were high when the insurgent leaders greeted Khalilzad in Amman. The Iraqis had just held their first democratic elections for a permanent government and the US ambassador hoped to broker an enduring political settlement.

Feelers had been put out to Iraqi insurgents before but not at such a high level. "The Americans had been flirting with such meetings for a while, but they needed to sit down with people who carried more weight in the insurgency," said one leader of the National Islamic Resistance, an umbrella organisation representing some of the main insurgent groups.

The trio of Iraqi negotiators claimed to represent three-quarters of the "resistance". It included Ansar al- Sunnah, the group responsible for a suicide bombing that killed 22 in a

US army canteen in Mosul in December 2004, and also the 1920 Revolution Brigade, which has carried out many kidnappings and claimed to have shot down a British Hercules aircraft near Tikrit in January 2005, in which 10 people died.

At the first meeting with Khalilzad on January 17, the insurgents expressed concern about the emergence of Iran as a new regional power. With America equally worried about Iranian interference, the two sides appeared to have found some common ground. The talks continued in Baghdad for about eight weeks, sometimes on consecutive days at Allawi's home.

At one point the insurgents offered Khalilzad a 10-day "period of grace" in which attacks on coalition forces would be suspended in return for a cessation of US military operations.

They called for a "timetable for withdrawal", saying that it should be announced immediately although in practice it would be "linked to the timescale necessary to rebuild Iraq's armed forces and security services", according to one commander.

Other demands said to have been received sympathetically by Khalilzad, such as an amnesty for insurgents and a reversal of the "de-Ba'athification" process that stripped so many Sunnis of their jobs, have now been urged by the Iraq Study Group.

There was more. Brushing aside the results of Iraq's democratic elections, the insurgents proposed that an emergency government be formed under Allawi's leadership. Non-sectarian politicians should be appointed to the crucial ministries of defence and the interior, they urged, because they would be responsible for rebuilding a strong national army and security service. Under this proposal, the newly elected Iraqi government would, in effect, have been sidelined.

"I told Khalilzad that we had the know-how and the manpower to regain control of Baghdad and rid it of the pro-Iranian militias," one of the insurgent commanders added.

"If he would just provide us with the weapons, we would clean up the city and regain control of Baghdad in 30 days."

The atmosphere eventually soured at a meeting said to have been attended by Khalilzad and six US generals as well as tribal leaders from Baghdad, Anbar, Diyala and other hotspots. Each side apparently accused the other of stepping up attacks during the supposed period of grace and the insurgents refused to have lunch with the generals on the grounds that they were military occupiers.

The talks were further complicated by the different demands of warring Sunni rebel groups. A close associate of Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri, Saddam Hussein's former vice-president and the king of clubs in the US "most wanted" deck of playing cards, said that many of the insurgent groups were still being directed by Saddam's former party and military leadership.

According to a senior Ba'athist representative, insurgent groups linked to al-Douri would not sit down with the Americans unless they first agreed to a series of other conditions ranging from compensation for Iraq's losses during the war to the reinstatement of Saddam's military.

The final blow to the negotiations came in mid-March when Khalilzad said that he would be willing to talk to Iran about resolving the conflict in Iraq. The news came as a bombshell to the Sunni insurgents, who complained to the ambassador at their final meeting.

Shortly afterwards the government of Nouri al-Maliki was formed with the support of pro-Iranian elements. The Sunni insurgents responded by sending a memo to Khalilzad - now tipped to become US ambassador to the United Nations - suspending all meetings and accusing the Americans of "dishonesty".

According to one commander, the insurgent groups were told: "Place your faith in Allah, the gloves are off. Carry on with your resistance."

A US embassy spokesman in Baghdad yesterday declined to comment on the talks but said America remained committed to the current government and to "an inclusive Iraqi political process, with representatives from all Iraq's communities".

Posted at 04:43 pm by ariksilverman
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Jan 15, 2007
Would You Buy a Used Occupation From These People?

Would You Buy a Used Occupation From These People?

Israel and its supporters are always accusing the Palestinians of saying one thing in English to the world but saying something quite different in Arabic. Well, the Israelis do the same thing.

BEAR IN MIND THAT THE "DISENGAGEMENT" FROM GAZA WAS PHONY: ISRAEL MAINTAINS THE TIGHT CONTROL OF THE TERRITORY THAT ONE WOULD ONLY EXPECT TO SEE IN A PRISON CAMP.

QUOTE: "It's a new position made very clear in Hebrew before the courts but not something that Israel has made clear internationally," said Sari Bashi, Gisha's executive director.

20070115 LT below The victims of Gaza's identity crisis

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2548381,00.html

Times Online [London] January 15, 2007

Israel's 'invisible hand' still controls Gaza, says report

David Sharrock in Gaza

Israel continues to control Gaza, 16 months after it pulled out its settlements and military installations, with an "invisible hand" that has provoked a severe humanitarian and economic crisis, according to an Israeli human rights body.

Ending its 38-year military occupation of the Gaza Strip did not end Israeli control but simply changed the rules of engagement, charges Gisha, the Legal Centre for Freedom of Movement, in a report due to be published next week.

The organisation says that Israel's control over Gaza's borders, airspace, territorial waters, population registry, tax system and supply of goods means that it cannot absolve itself of responsibility for its citizens under international law.

"It's a new position made very clear in Hebrew before the courts but not something that Israel has made clear internationally," said Sari Bashi, Gisha's executive director.

"Sometimes Israeli soldiers still operate in the streets of Gaza but Israeli control of every aspect of the lives of Gaza citizens is constant, they know that their ability to do ordinary things like turn on a light or buy milk depends on decisions made by the Israeli military."

The report details how Israel has removed some of its elements of control while significantly tightening others.

"Far from improving the economy and welfare of Gaza residents, Israeli actions since September 2005 - including severe restrictions on the movement of people and goods in and out of Gaza and an economic stronghold on the funding of civil services - have contributed to an economic and humanitarian crisis in Gaza not seen in the 38 years of Israeli control that preceded the withdrawal of permanent ground troops."

Gisha says that Gaza has been cut off from the outside world for 42 per cent of the time since the Strip was evacuated of Jewish settlers and troops. The Rafah Crossing between Gaza and Egypt is operated by the Palestinian Authority under the supervision of European Union monitors and Israeli security officials who monitor operations with live video footage and passenger lists.

Travel through the crossing is restricted to Palestinians registered in the Israeli-controlled Palestinian population registry.

This means that foreigners may only enter Gaza via the Israeli-controlled crossing points in the north.

"Reports and internal military documents suggest that Israel has used the closure of the (Rafah) crossing to exercise pressure on Gaza residents. In the first year following the completion of its disengagement programme, Israel kept Rafah Crossing closed for 148 days." Since June last year, when militants kidnapped an Israeli soldier, the Rafah crossing has been closed for 80 per cent of the time and, on days that it has opened, has functioned only for a few

hours.

At the same time Israel has also kept Gaza's other crossings mostly closed and has withheld monies needed to pay the salaries of civil servants and to run civilian institutions.

"The results of these controls have been devastating and have helped plunge Gaza into an economic and humanitarian crisis unprecedented in nearly four decades of occupation," says the report, seen by The Times.

Israel completely controls the import of goods into Gaza and exercises substantial control over exports from Gaza to third countries and to the West Bank.

The Karni Crossing between Israel and Gaza is the lifeline through Which commercial goods enter the Gaza Strip. Because imports to Gaza are not permitted via air, sea, or Rafah Crossing, only goods arriving first in Israel and inspected there can be brought into Gaza.

"The restrictions on imports via Karni Crossing have, at various points, caused severe shortages of basic goods that threatened the health and welfare of Gaza residents," the report says.

"Citing security warnings, Israel has closed Karni Crossing to exports for most of 2006, causing severe damage to Gaza's economy and rendering export crops virtually worthless. The closures caused an estimated $30 US million in losses in the first quarter of 2006 alone.

"During that time, farmers destroyed their crops, donated them, or left them to rot in the fields, because they could not get them out of Gaza and to export markets."

Another controversial are is control over the Palestinian Population Registry, which means control over who may enter and leave Gaza.

Since 2000, with few exceptions, Israel has not permitted additions to the Palestinian Population Registry, with the exception of children of Palestinian ID-card holders.

Tens of thousands of Gaza residents, primarily women who entered Gaza on visitor permits and married locals, cannot leave because they will not be permitted to return.

A result of these policies, says Gisha, is an unemployment rate which has risen between 2005 and 2006 from 33.1 per cent to 41.8 per cent, and Gross Domestic Product has declined by an estimated 30 per cent.

The report concludes:"So long as Israel exercises control over civilian life in Gaza, it will continue to owe obligations to those civilians whose lives depend on the decisions of a foreign military power."

===== 20070115 LT below The victims of Gaza's identity crisis

=====

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2547485,00.html

The Times [London] January 15, 2007

 

 

Ahmad el-Akad's wife, Elena, left Gaza to visit her dying mother in Siberia. She has no identity card in Gaza and has not been allowed to return with her children. (David Sharrock)

The victims of Gaza's identity crisis

David Sharrock in Gaza

# Israel has frozen Palestinian register

# Thousands have no official papers

She wants to leave but dares not, fearing that her return will be barred. He yearns for his wife and children to come home, trapped on the other side of Gaza's walled high-tech frontier. Both are victims of Israel's control of the Palestinian population register.

Under the 1993 Oslo accords, which charted a phased route to Palestinian statehood, any addition to the Palestinian population register was subject to Israeli approval. But Israel has frozen the register since the outbreak of the second intifada in 2000, leaving tens of thousands of ordinary people in Gaza, like Mirvat al-Nahal, a lawyer, and Ahmad el-Akad, an ophthalmologist, in limbo. Their plight is highlighted in a forthcoming report from Gischa, the Israeli Legal Centre for Freedom of Movement.

Ms al-Nahal was born in exile in Libya and was 19 when her parents took her home to Rafah, on the Gaza-Egypt border. "I finished high school here, then studied law at El Azhar University. But for the past 13 years I have never left Gaza because I have no official identity. My father was told he had no right to an identity card because he left Palestine before the Israelis invaded Gaza in 1967. Until a year ago my father couldn't even travel to Gaza City, 45 minutes away, because he was afraid the Israelis would catch him at a checkpoint and deport him.

"My mother Nadia's family also left and live in Syria. When we lived in Libya we could visit them, but since 1993 she has not seen them. In 2005 Nadia had a stroke and needed medical facilities that were only available in Ramallah.

"She was refused the right to cross to the West Bank because she had no identity card. She died while we were trying to arrange for a specialist to come from Ramallah to treat her.

"My children Taysir [an 8-year-old boy], Shahed [a 5-year-old girl] and Seifildeen [a 3-year-old boy] can travel because my husband has his Gazan identity papers and they are included under his name. But I am deprived of all my rights as a citizen. My husband's ID card says he is married but the box for 'spouse's name' is blank. I want to develop my career. I have been offered scholarships to do my masters abroad but if I take them I know that I will be refused entry on my return."

Dr el-Akad left Gaza in 1990 to study ophthalmology in Tomsk at the University of Siberia. He met Elena, a doctor, and in 1994 they married. A year later their son Mostafa was born. In 2000 he applied for a family visit visa so that they could return to Gaza. They got jobs, Elena as a paediatrician in the Palestinian Ministry of Health and Dr el-Akad in the private sector. In 2002 Daiana, a daughter, was born. Elena applied for her ID card but nothing happened.

"You apply through the Palestinian administration but it is up to the Israelis. We waited a long time. We wrote to President Putin, to Arafat, we tried everything. My wife's father died in 2005 and she was not able to go to the funeral. Last year her mother's [heart] condition worsened and she was calling Elena, saying 'I want to see you before I die'.

"She was caught between two emotions, to see her mother for the last time or stay with her husband and children. It was agonising. In July last year we decided that she should go to Siberia."

At this point Dr el-Akad began to cry. "We have tried everything. My children can come back, but how can they without their mother? It's not easy to find work for her or me in Siberia, while here she is respected in her profession.

"My children cry when I speak to them. They ask me: 'When are we coming home? When will we see you?' I send them $1,000 a month but now I must sell my furniture because there is no work here, the economy is collapsing. I know of people here in similar circumstances who eventually divorce because they cannot get back. I am afraid this will be my fate."

Posted at 12:13 pm by ariksilverman
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Iraq: Bush Losing to Sistani?

Iraq: Bush Losing to Sistani?

QUOTE: On the day of Bush's televised speech, a delegation led by Mowafaq al-Rubai, Iraq's national security adviser, unveiled its plan to secure Baghdad to Sistani. It envisages creating a new post of the commander-in-chief reporting directly to Maliki, thus bypassing the defence minister, Abdul-Qader al-Mifarji, a Sunni in thrall of the Pentagon. . .Bush's new plan envisages the American and Iraqi forces first securing Sunni and mixed neighbourhoods of Greater Baghdad and then entering the Sadr City, a stronghold of the Mahdi army. It is unthinkable that Maliki will consider attacking Sadr City without consulting Sistani. And Sistani will never sanction armed action against fellow Shias.

http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/dilip_hiro/2007/01/sistani_matters_more_than_bush.html.printer.friendly

Cords that cannot be broken

Dilip Hiro

January 15, 2007 11:45 AM

http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/dilip_hiro/2007/01/sistani_matters_more_than_bush.html

Several months before his declaration in a televised speech on January 10 that the Pentagon would go after the Iranian networks in Iraq, President Bush signed secret orders authorising military action to counter Iran's ambitions in Iraq and the broader Middle East.

This revelation came from Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, in her January 13 interview with the New York Times. She added that Bush issued the orders to implement "force protection", arguing that Iran was providing explosively formed penetrators (EFP), capable of penetrating tanks, to Iraqi terrorists to target US forces.

So far the Bush administration had produced no evidence to prove its allegation.

Rice's statement explained the rationale behind the arrest of five Iranian diplomats in Irbil, the Kurdistan Autonomous Region's capital, by the Americans on January 11 - preceded by the detention of two Iranian officials in Baghdad, invited by Iraq's Kurdish president Jalal Talabani.

Bush's move is one of the several meant to isolate Iran. But, whatever success he has in persuading European banks not to deal with a couple of Iranian banks, he won't get far in creating bad blood between Iranians and the Shia and Kurdish Iraqis.

Bush cannot alter two facts, one geographical and the other religious. Iraq and Iran share a 750-mile long border which is impossible to seal.

Also, 90% of Iranians and 60% of Iraqis belong to Shia Islam. The links between Shia religious leaders in the two countries, and between Najaf, the Shia theological centre in Iraq, and Qom, the Iranian centre of Shia learning, span many centuries.

When Britain, as the mandate power in Iraq after the first world war, expelled the pre-eminent Shia clerics for their successful call to fellow-Shias to revolt against the British forces in 1920, they found refuge in Qom.

During the early years of Islam, Qom developed as a refuge for the opponents of the Umayyad Dynasty (661-750), in 685. These refugees were soon called Shia Ali, partisans of Ali. They stood apart from Sunnis, the people of the Sunna, custom of Prophet Muhammad and his three successors - Abu Bakr, Omar and Othman - whom Shias did not recognise as legitimate caliphs since they did not belong to the prophet's family. Qom became a symbol of resistance to the Sunni governors and their tax demands.

As the burial place of Imam Ali, the founder of Shia Islam, Najaf is the leading centre of Shia learning and pilgrimage.

The career of 76-year-old Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani is illustrative. Born in the Iranian city of Mashhad, he pursued his theological studies first in Qom, and then in Najaf, where he obtained a degree in ijtihad, interpretative reasoning of the Islamic law. His return to Mashhad in 1960 was brief.

Back in Najaf, he became a theological teacher. He belonged to the quietist school of Shia clerics who limited themselves to providing social welfare to the community. This helped him to secure his base in Najaf after the secular Ba'athist party seized power in 1968 and repressed those Shia clerics who advocated intervention in state affairs.

By the end of the Iran-Iraq War in 1988, Sistani had acquired the status of an ayatollah, and gained popularity due to his Spartan way of life. After the assassination of Grand Ayatollah Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr in 1999, the government appointed him the Grand Ayatollah.

With the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003, the long-suppressed Shias came to the fore, backing the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), the brainchild of Sistani, in the elections. The UIA includes the supreme council for Islamic revolution in Iraq (Sciri), al-Daawa al Islamiya (to which Ibrahim Jaafari and Nouri al-Maliki belong), and the Sadrists led by radical Moqtada al-Sadr, commander of the Mahdi army.

Jaafari, the prime minister elected by the transition national assembly, had the blessing of Sistani. When a crisis developed due to Jaafari's refusal to step down after he had won re-election by a single vote within the UIA, Sistani intervened.

Maliki invariably consults Sistani on major issues. When a stalemate developed between his office and US officials regarding the execution of Saddam Hussein, with the Americans referring to the pre-war law banning executions during Eid al-Adha, Maliki sought Sistani's opinion. Sistani gave the go-ahead.

On the day of Bush's televised speech, a delegation led by Mowafaq al-Rubai, Iraq's national security adviser, unveiled its plan to secure Baghdad to Sistani. It envisages creating a new post of the commander-in-chief reporting directly to Maliki, thus bypassing the defence minister, Abdul-Qader al-Mifarji, a Sunni in thrall of the Pentagon.

Bush's new plan envisages the American and Iraqi forces first securing Sunni and mixed neighbourhoods of Greater Baghdad and then entering the Sadr City, a stronghold of the Mahdi army. It is unthinkable that Maliki will consider attacking Sadr City without consulting Sistani. And Sistani will never sanction armed action against fellow Shias.

So the scene is set for Sistani to trump Bush in Iraq - as he should.

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Posted at 10:50 am by ariksilverman
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Jan 11, 2007
More Troops? The Real Threat is Here

More Troops? The Real Threat is Here

Although the attempt to increase the US military presence in Iraq is grabbing all the headlines, the real threat we face is efforts to increase the size of the US military at home.

Giving some future George Bush more troops to play with would only invite further fiascos like Iraq: it would be like giving gasoline to an arsonist. If anything, the size of our military should be decreased.

Our future wars should be more like Afghanistan, where we have many partners and not just token support from diehards like Tony Blair of Britain.

If a future George Bush were forced to seek partners because he didn't have sufficient troops for unilateral action, he'd have to build a coalition by providing credible evidence of a threat (as Bush's father did in 1991).

Faking or fudging Weapons of Mass Destruction evidence wouldn't fool most partners, just as it didn't work with our older, more experienced friends in Europe, such as France, Belgium, and Germany, and our brave soldiers wouldn't be sacrificed for nothing.

Those who value the lives of our brave troops should just say "no" to a bigger army.

Posted at 10:51 pm by ariksilverman
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A Lap Dog No More?

A Lap Dog No More?

Britain's Tony Blair has long been accused of being George Bush's lap dog, but maybe his tail is no longer wagging.

QUOTE: With American troop levels about to rise, Des Browne, the Defence Decretary, confirmed The Daily Telegraph's report that thousands of British forces were set to leave.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/01/12/wiraq12.xml

US threatens Iran as troops plan attacked


By Toby Harnden, Damien McElroy and Thomas Harding

Last Updated: 3:33am GMT 12/01/2007

 

America delivered a thinly-veiled threat to Iran yesterday, declaring that it would not "stand idly by" if Teheran continued to arm Iraq's insurgents. As President  George W Bush digested the reaction to his plan to send another 21,500 troops to pacify Iraq, his administration escalated the pressure on Iran.

In Iraq's northern city of Irbil, US forces raided an office housing Iran's representatives. Six Iranians were arrested and documents seized. The operation infuriated Teheran, which said the office enjoyed diplomatic protection. But American officials said Iranians agents were covertly aiding Shia militias and meddling in Baghdad's new government.

In Washington, Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, told the Senate foreign relations committee that Iran and Syria were "de-stabilising" Iraq and said that America would respond.

"I don't want to speculate on what operations the United States may be engaged in, but you will see that the United States is not going to stand idly by," she said.

America's new plan for Iraq depends on the attitude of Baghdad's government under Nouri al-Maliki, the Shia prime minister. Success will hinge on whether he is willing to act against militias drawn from his Shia power base.

Miss Rice had a tough warning for Mr Maliki. "I think he knows that his government is, in a sense, on borrowed time, not just in terms of the American people but in terms of the Iraqi people," she said.

Last month, the Iraq Study Group — comprising some of America's most senior statesmen — recommended a conciliatory approach towards Iran and Syria coupled with a gradual withdrawal of US forces from Iraq. Mr Bush has adopted the opposite course.

His decision has stirred great unease. Chuck Hagel, a Republican senator, called Mr Bush's move the "most dangerous foreign policy blunder since Vietnam".

Dennis Kucinich, a Democratic congressman and presidential candidate, asked: "Isn't one war enough for this president?"

With American troop levels about to rise, Des Browne, the Defence Decretary, confirmed The Daily Telegraph's report that thousands of British forces were set to leave.

"Over the course of the this year, we can expect to see a reduction in our troops by a matter of thousands," he told MPs.

This withdrawal would allow forces to be transferred to Afghanistan, where the onset of spring is expected to bring a renewed offensive by the Taliban.

But the prospect of British troops leaving southern Iraq has left Sunni leaders fearing for their lives.

Posted at 10:51 pm by ariksilverman
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Jan 10, 2007
CIA Kiss of Death for Lebanon?

CIA Kiss of Death for Lebanon?

Discovering that the CIA is behind the current government in Lebanon is not likely to increase its popularity.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/01/10/wleb10.xml

CIA gets the go-ahead to take on Hizbollah

By Toby Harnden, US Editor

Last Updated: 1:47am GMT 10/01/2007

The Central Intelligence Agency has been authorised to take covert action against Hizbollah as part of a secret plan by President George W. Bush to help the Lebanese government prevent the spread of Iranian influence. Senators and congressmen have been briefed on the classified "non-lethal presidential finding" that allows the CIA to provide financial and logistical support to the prime minister, Fouad Siniora.

The finding was signed by Mr Bush before Christmas after discussions between his aides and Saudi Arabian officials. Details of its existence, known only to a small circle of White House officials, intelligence officials and members of Congress, have been passed to The Daily Telegraph.

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It authorises the CIA and other US intelligence agencies to fund anti-Hizbollah groups in Lebanon and pay for activists who support the Siniora government. The secrecy of the finding means that US involvement in the activities is officially deniable.

The Bush administration hopes Mr Siniora's government, severely weakened after its war with Israel last year, will become a bulwark against the growing power of the Shia sect of Islam, championed by Iran and Syria, since the fall of Saddam Hussein.

Mr Bush's move is at the centre of a fresh drive by America, supported by the Sunni states of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt as well as Israel, to stop Iranian hegemony in the Middle East emerging from the collapse of Iraq.

The finding, drawn up at the White House by National Security Council (NSC) officials, is a sign of Mr Bush's growing alarm at the threat posed by Iran, which has infiltrated the Iraqi government and is training Shia insurgents as well as supplying them with roadside bombs.

A former US government official said: "Siniora's under siege there and we are always looking for ways to help allies. As Richard Armitage [a former deputy US secretary of state] said, Hizbollah is the A-team of terrorism and certainly Iran and Syria have not let up in their support of the group."

Prince Bandar bin-Sultan, the former Saudi Arabian ambassador to Washington, is understood to have been closely involved in the decision to prop up Mr Siniora's administration and the Israeli government, which views Iran as its chief enemy, has also been supportive.

"There's a feeling both in Jerusalem and in Riyadh that the anti-Sunni tilt in the region has gone too far," said an intelligence source. "By removing Saddam, we've shifted things in favour of the Shia and this is a counter-balancing exercise.

Prince Bandar, now King Abdullah's national security adviser, made several trips to Washington and held meetings with Elliot Abrams, the senior Middle East official on the NSC.

Prince Turki al-Faisal resigned abruptly as ambassador to Washington last month. Intelligence sources said that a principal reason for this was his belief he had been undermined by Prince Bandar, who had not told him of the Lebanon plan or even that he was visiting Washington.

As a quid pro quo to the Sunni Arab states, Mr Bush and Ehud Olmert, the Israeli prime minister, have agreed to work harder to re-start negotiations about a peace deal with the Palestinians.

According to the Swoop website (theswoop.net), which contains briefings on diplomatic and intelligence matters: "US officials point to the Israeli release of some tax monies owed to the Palestinian Authority as the first fruits of this approach.

Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former clandestine CIA officer, said that such a finding would involve "various steps and types of non-military activity" agreed to by the Lebanese. "It takes two to tango. You're only those things that the Lebanese themselves would want you to do," he said.

Bush administration officials have spoken of their desire to promote "mainstream" Arab states and have even spoken of the existence of a "Sunni crescent" in the Middle East. But there is tension between this policy and the support for Nouri al-Maliki's Shia-led government in Iraq, which has links to Shia death squads and Iran.

"The administration is reaping its own whirlwind after Iraq," said the intelligence source. "For 50 years the US preferred stability over legitimacy in the Middle East and now it's got neither. It's a situation replete with ironies."

Posted at 01:49 pm by ariksilverman
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Somalia: What's Really Going On?

Somalia: What's Really Going On?

Time will tell what's really happening in Somalia, but this story says analysts in the region say events were quite different from the version put about by the US and the Somali government. It's suggested that the US didn't send in helicopter gunships to assassinate an al Qaida bigshot, but to rescue Ethiopian troops that got in trouble, the al Qaida story being a phony coverup. As I said, time will tell which version is correct.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2540484,00.html

Times Online [London] January 10, 2007

Comment: Claims of al-Qaeda death mask danger of civil war


Claims that a senior al-Qaeda suspect believed to have been the mastermind behind terror attacks against US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania has been killed in the current wave of air strikes against Islamist strongholds in southern Somalia have been greeted with scepticism in the region.

News agencies reported Somali government officials saying that Fazul Abdullah Mohamed, who is accused of the joint 1998 bombings of the US embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam which killed 262 people, was dead. The Somali President’s Chief of Staff said he had received the information from the Americans.

However, reports from the area said Fazul Abdullah had left the hardline Islamist hideout of Ras Kamboni and slipped over the porous border to Kenya, where his wife and many members of his family live, several weeks ago. Regional analysts said they believed reports of his death were misinformation intended to give the impression the operation was a success and mask the danger of the country slipping into an all-out civil war.

Local sources said the Ethiopian forces, who had cornered fugitive Somali Islamists in the area since they were driven out of the capital two weeks ago, had suffered high casualties and called on the US for air support. That support now needed to be justified.

"I suspect we are seeing some classic misinformation going on here… The truth is the American and Ethiopian intelligence from the area has always been suspect," said one expert on Somalia based in Kenya. "Unless, we are shown the bodies of these alleged al-Qaeda operatives, no-one will believe it."

Regional analysts say Somalia’s Islamists were largely made up of members of the Hawiye clan while the US-backed weak transitional government is dominated by the Darod and its sub-clans, historic foes of the Hawiye and former backers of the deposed dictator Mohamed Siad Barre whose fall from power ushered in 15 years of rule by warlords.

They said the situation in Mogadishu, which saw its first period of calm for more than a decade after it was taken by the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) last June, would be the true test of whether the military operation against the Islamists and hardline al-Qaeda sympathisers was a success or not.

"There are several thousand UIC supporters in Mogadishu, what they do is more important for long-term stability in Somalia than whether these al-Qaeda operatives are killed or not," the source added.

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